Big Sur, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

894
FXUS66 KMTR 051739
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
939 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 303 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Hazardous cold conditions through Friday morning for North and
   East Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast

 - Persistent forecast through the next seven days with benign
   conditions and no precipitation expected

 - Impacts from Tule Fog continue in the interior East Bay

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

Satellite imagery does indeed show the Tule Fog creeping into the
interior East Bay and parts of the North Bay. In particular,
Contra Costa County has seen some dense fog develop and the East
Bay Interior Valleys are now under a Dense Fog Advisory through 11
AM today. Will continue to monitor the stratus evolution and may
need to extend into the North Bay if dense fog develops there, or
cancel it early if the visibilities improve. The Cold Weather
Advisory has been allowed to expire. No other changes to the
forecast at this time.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 315 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025
(Today and tonight)

First and foremost expanded the Cold Weather Advisory to include
the North and East Bay Valleys with the existing advisory over
the Interior Central Coast. A lot less mid-hgih level clouds are
being observed overnight. The clear skies combined with relatively
light winds increased radiational cooling effectiveness
overnight. As such, seeing a lot more observations around that 36
degree threshold. Therefore, went ahead and expanded the Cold
WEather Advisory. Also seeing some radiational fog form over the
North Valleys with patchy dense fog near Santa Rosa. Additionally,
the Central Valley is still seeing some Tule Fog. Just like the
last few nights it will creep into the West Delta and far interior
East Bay Valleys.

Otherwise, the large area of upper level high pressure parked off
the CA will slowly ooze eastward. At the same time a few weak
systems will ride the north periphery of the ridge and move
through the PacNW. These weak system will bring some clouds and
decaying fronts over the NorCal Coast. Previous forecast had a
mentions of showers over the coastal waters today and tonight, but
it`s looking less likely. Hi-res guidance is still picking up on
some moisture. In stead of completely removing the precip
converted it to drizzle. Regardless, no impact to land and kept
all chances over the waters.

Sensible weather today will be rather pleasant after the cool
start. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s. For tonight,
expecting less radiational cool due to some increasing clouds and
possible return of low stratus. Will hold off on extending any
Cold Weather Advisories tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 320 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

Pretty benign weather through the long term. The ridge of high
pressure will keep the region high and dry with the exception of
drizzle over the coastal waters this weekend. The ridge of high
pressure is expected to build and strengthen over CA into early
next. As such, additional warming is expected with a general 2 to
4 degrees through the middle of next week. In fact, by next
Wednesday/Thursday interior Central Coast is forecast to reach the
mid 70s with solid 60s to near 70 elsewhere around the Bay Area.

How about rain? Longer range guidance still shows a possible
pattern change by the middle of the month. Cluster analysis of
ensembles show a majority still keeping a ridge, but a few
cluster groups show a breakdown of the ridge. FWIW CPC 8-14 day
outlook is now showing increasing chances for precip Dec 12-18.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

Patchy to areas of fog persist across the North Bay and East Bay
valleys this morning and are forecast to improve between 19- 20Z.
This will give way to mostly VFR conditions after low ceilings and
visibilities improve. Onshore winds look to increase by this
afternoon across the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay terminals
before easing late this evening and into Saturday morning. This is
when low ceilings and/or visibilities are expected again in the
North Bay and East Bay valleys early Saturday morning. Any low
ceilings and/or visibilities that do develop are expected to clear
at a similar time as today.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Offshore winds
prevail this morning and are expected to become north-
northwesterly by mid- to-late afternoon. Winds diminish overnight
with moderate to high confidence of onshore winds returning by
Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Light to
southerly winds prevail this morning and are forecast to become
onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. Winds diminish overnight and
become southerly early Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 828 AM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

Northerly winds are increasing across the waters with fresh to
strong gusts expected. Localized near gale force gusts are
possible across the outer waters and in the favored coastal jet
regions through the weekend. These winds persist into the upcoming
work week. Moderate seas continue with seas building to between 6
to 8 feet Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ510.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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